NBA · Price Outliers

NBA Price Outliers

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Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every NBA game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

NBA · 33 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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33 prices

Player	Bet	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
JERAMI GRANTJ. GRANT	o2.5 Assists alt	+320	+193 ×6	10.3	+22.2%*	—	DEN @ MEM
JERAMI GRANTJ. GRANT	o14.5 Pts + Ast alt	+190	+130 ×5	9.0 +2	+12.4%*	—	DEN @ MEM
JERAMI GRANTJ. GRANT	o19.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+350	+225 ×5	8.5 +1	+15.8%*	—	DEN @ MEM
JERAMI GRANTJ. GRANT	o14.5 Pts + Reb alt	+155	+113 ×5	7.7 +2	+8.3%*	—	DEN @ MEM
SPENCER JONESS. JONES	o1.5 Threes alt	+525	+335 ×10	7.0 +1	+32.1%	—	DEN @ MEM
CEDRIC COWARDC. COWARD	o19.5 Pts + Ast alt	+275	+197 ×6	7.0 +1	+7.3%*	—	DEN @ MEM
SPENCER JONESS. JONES	o0.5 Threes	-102	-133 ×12	6.6	+3.0%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
JAMAL MURRAYJ. MURRAY	o34.5 Pts + Ast alt	+250	+185 ×7	6.5	+5.2%*	—	DEN @ MEM
CAM SPENCERC. SPENCER	o14.5 Pts + Ast alt	+220	+165 ×6	6.5	+4.8%*	—	DEN @ MEM
CHRISTIAN BRAUNC. BRAUN	o2.5 Assists	+182	+140 ×9	6.2	+11.1%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
DEMAR DEROZAND. DEROZAN	o2.5 Rebounds	+168	+130 ×7	6.2	+6.0%	+1.9%	DEN @ MEM
JERAMI GRANTJ. GRANT	o1.5 Assists	-108	-138 ×11	6.1	+0.3%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
JAMAL MURRAYJ. MURRAY	o34.5 Pts + Reb alt	+350	+256 ×7	5.9 +1	+4.1%*	—	DEN @ MEM
CAM SPENCERC. SPENCER	o7.5 Reb + Ast alt	+145	+114 ×4	5.8 +1	+3.4%*	—	DEN @ MEM
CEDRIC COWARDC. COWARD	u15.5 Pts + Ast	+120	-105 ×5	5.8	+4.4%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
NIKOLA JOKICN. JOKIC	o24.5 Reb + Ast alt	+280	+212 ×4	5.7	+2.6%*	+2.6%	DEN @ MEM
JAMAL MURRAYJ. MURRAY	o6.5 Assists	+138	+110 ×12	5.6	+3.9%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
NIKOLA JOKICN. JOKIC	o8.5 Assists alt	-140	-177 ×6	5.6	+4.9%*	+1.9%	DEN @ MEM
CAMERON BOOZERC. BOOZER	o29.5 Pts + Ast alt	+500	+350 ×7	5.6	+5.5%*	—	DEN @ MEM
CHRISTIAN BRAUNC. BRAUN	o14.5 Pts + Ast alt	+135	+108 ×5	5.5	+2.6%*	—	DEN @ MEM
CHRISTIAN BRAUNC. BRAUN	o19.5 Pts + Reb alt	+275	+211 ×5	5.5	+1.7%*	—	DEN @ MEM
JAYLEN WELLSJ. WELLS	o9.5 Points alt	-116	-144 ×12	5.3	+0.3%	—	DEN @ MEM
NIKOLA JOKICN. JOKIC	o9.5 Assists	+120	-103 ×14	5.3	+2.2%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
JAMAL MURRAYJ. MURRAY	o39.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+260	+203 ×7	5.2	+9.3%	—	DEN @ MEM
JERAMI GRANTJ. GRANT	o10.5 Points	-104	-128 ×10	5.2	+0.8%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
SPENCER JONESS. JONES	o0.5 Threes	-108	-133 ×12	5.2	+0.2%	+0.5%	DEN @ MEM
CEDRIC COWARDC. COWARD	o24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+155	+125 ×6	5.1	+1.4%*	—	DEN @ MEM
SPENCER JONESS. JONES	o9.5 Pts + Reb alt	+250	+197 ×6	5.1	+0.2%*	+2.6%	DEN @ MEM
JAYLEN WELLSJ. WELLS	o14.5 Pts + Reb alt	+140	+114 ×5	5.1	+1.3%*	—	DEN @ MEM
ZACH EDEYZ. EDEY	o17.5 Pts + Reb	-102	-125 ×6	5.1	+2.9%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
ZACH EDEYZ. EDEY	o8.5 Rebounds	+102	-120 ×11	5.0	+1.0%	−1.4%	DEN @ MEM
JERAMI GRANTJ. GRANT	o14.5 Points alt	+290	+226 ×11	5.0	+7.3%	—	DEN @ MEM
CEDRIC COWARDC. COWARD	o14.5 Points alt	+155	+126 ×11	5.0	+3.0%	—	DEN @ MEM

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders). 4 prices from flagged books hidden — turn on Flagged books to see them.