NBA · Price Outliers

NBA Price Outliers

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Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every NBA game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

NBA · 27 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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27 prices

Player	Bet	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o24.5 Pts + Ast alt	+400	+210 ×7	12.3 +3	+36.1%*	—	BOS @ TOR
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o19.5 Points alt	+375	+212 ×12	10.9 +2	+32.9%	—	BOS @ TOR
DERRICK WHITED. WHITE	o4.5 Assists	+110	-140 ×12	10.7 +2	+14.1%	—	BOS @ TOR
DERRICK WHITED. WHITE	o9.5 Reb + Ast alt	+230	+145 ×6	10.5	+18.6%*	—	BOS @ TOR
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o29.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+380	+260 ×5	6.9 +1	+9.6%*	+2.6%	BOS @ TOR
JAKOB POELTLJ. POELTL	o19.5 Pts + Reb	+110	-120 ×9	6.9 +1	+6.7%	—	BOS @ TOR
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o24.5 Pts + Reb alt	+375	+260 ×7	6.7 +1	+8.4%*	—	BOS @ TOR
JAYSON TATUMJ. TATUM	u26.5 Points	+118	-108 ×5	6.1	+3.9%	+0.5%	BOS @ TOR
IMMANUEL QUICKLEYI. QUICKLEY	o21.5 Pts + Reb	+113	-112 ×8	6.0	+4.8%	−1.4%	BOS @ TOR
DERRICK WHITED. WHITE	o4.5 Assists	-110	-140 ×12	6.0	+3.7%	+2.6%	BOS @ TOR
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o24.5 Pts + Ast alt	+280	+210 ×7	5.9	+3.4%*	+2.6%	BOS @ TOR
JA'KOBE WALTERJ. WALTER	o1.5 Steals	+160	+125 ×10	5.9	+6.3%	—	BOS @ TOR
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o7.5 Reb + Ast	+110	-115 ×9	5.9 +1	+4.3%	—	BOS @ TOR
COLLIN MURRAY-BOYLESC. MURRAY-BOYLES	o24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+275	+207 ×6	5.9	+3.2%*	+2.6%	BOS @ TOR
DERRICK WHITED. WHITE	o17.5 Pts + Reb alt	-100	-125 ×4	5.7	+4.1%	−1.4%	BOS @ TOR
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o29.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+350	+260 ×5	5.6	+2.7%*	—	BOS @ TOR
COLLIN MURRAY-BOYLESC. MURRAY-BOYLES	o7.5 Reb + Ast alt	-120	-150 ×5	5.5	+1.1%	—	BOS @ TOR
IMMANUEL QUICKLEYI. QUICKLEY	o27.5 Pts + Reb + Ast	+113	-110 ×4	5.4	+2.2%	−1.4%	BOS @ TOR
COLLIN MURRAY-BOYLESC. MURRAY-BOYLES	o18.5 Pts + Reb	+113	-110 ×7	5.4	+4.3%	−1.4%	BOS @ TOR
JAYSON TATUMJ. TATUM	u26.5 Points	+115	-108 ×5	5.4	+2.5%	−1.4%	BOS @ TOR
JAKOB POELTLJ. POELTL	o11.5 Points	+108	-115 ×11	5.4	+4.0%	−1.4%	BOS @ TOR
JAKOB POELTLJ. POELTL	o1.5 Assists alt	-140	-175 ×11	5.3	−0.4%	+0.5%	BOS @ TOR
COLLIN MURRAY-BOYLESC. MURRAY-BOYLES	o24.5 Pts + Reb alt	+450	+326 ×7	5.3	+3.1%*	+2.6%	BOS @ TOR
JAKOB POELTLJ. POELTL	o7.5 Rebounds alt	-117	-145 ×13	5.3	−0.6%	−1.4%	BOS @ TOR
JAKOB POELTLJ. POELTL	o14.5 Pts + Ast alt	+135	+110 ×5	5.1	+1.5%*	—	BOS @ TOR
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o4.5 Assists	+135	+110 ×12	5.1	+4.8%	—	BOS @ TOR
PAYTON PRITCHARDP. PRITCHARD	o24.5 Pts + Reb alt	+340	+260 ×7	5.1	+0.4%*	+2.6%	BOS @ TOR

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders). 3 prices from flagged books hidden — turn on Flagged books to see them.