SGP Review: Turning $55 into $13,000 with SGP Lab Tools
Sorry for the long cover image. Such is life when you're round-robin-ing four SGPs.
I hit a doozy last weekend -- 3/4 legs of a $5 round robin that paid $13,158, (which means I made 11 bets at $5 each; the winning legs were +800, +1700 and +1600). The Ravens-Bills leg was DOA when Lamar Jackson went out on the first play, but any misfortune there was paid back by Bo Nix's fourth quarter heroics against the Chiefs.
In these SGP Reviews, I'll break down how I used SGPLab to find a lot of these angles.
Leg 1: Mayer & Wilson Alts
This was the shortest odds of the four. Wilson was just a play on a slightly suppressed yardage total of 63.5 after two down games when he's been consistently priced in the 70+ yard range all season.
The Mayer angle I first heard on a podcast about Jets defenses giving up plenty to tight ends under Aaron Glenn, so I investigated it in our Prop Lab.
Turns out, it was true, even against prop market expectations. Going up one rung on the ladder and betting tight end catches at +200 to +300 has been a great bet against the Jets in the last two seasons.
Leg 2: Broncos Under Rushing & ML
One of my favorite angles at bet365 is the winning team to go under its rushing yardage total against a defense that's far stronger than the run than against the pass, aka a Pass Funnel. That's because these are inversely correlated, and they'll pay you handsomely for it, because it's far more likely that the winning team runs the ball more and goes over their rushing total.
I layered in two usage props I liked -- Jonah Coleman stepping into a new role, and Noah Gray continuing to see more snaps with Kansas City's wide receiver room still a bit banged up. And then I got very lucky that Bo Nix did his thing again.
Leg 3: Browns Alt Receptions
It's been clear for a while that Cleveland, when Dylan Sampson is healthy, wants him to play in passing situations and Judkins to play on standard downs. Sampson's just been banged up all the time. But he's shown the ability to spike as a receiver when the Browns trail.
Harold Fannin is another target hog whose target number has been a bit deflated by game script this season. When the Browns trail, which they've done far less often than we expected, he can go nuts.
And Jaylen Warren is just a baller who continues to smash market expectations when given the opportunity. He's gone over both his rushing and receiving total in 7/10 games this year, best in the NFL, per our Player Correlation Tool outcomes.
