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NFL · Team Correlation Results · team outliers · Last 3 Seasons

NFL Team Correlation Results

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How much do two NFL team markets actually move together, priced off real odds rather than raw hit rates? Each leg is devigged from its own two-sided closing line; multiply the two and you get what the market implies if they were independent. Correlation is how far reality sits from that — i.e. how badly a naive multiply misprices the parlay. Flip either leg’s direction to negate it.

We compared every team against its own prices on 376 splits, and none of them stands out beyond what random chance produces at this many splits.

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top 376 of 376
TeamComboGamesTeam %League %Diffvs prices
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER434.7%21.0%-16.4%-16.1%
NYJNYJ1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4057.5%33.9%+23.6%+19.0%
BALBAL1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4235.7%21.0%+14.7%+15.5%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4337.2%19.1%+18.1%+15.1%
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4327.9%14.8%+13.1%+12.8%
MINMIN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN412.4%16.1%-13.7%-12.8%
LACLAC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4148.8%32.0%+16.7%+16.6%
MINMIN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4148.8%32.0%+16.7%+16.6%
NONO1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4015.0%32.1%-17.1%-16.6%
NONO1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4010.0%30.9%-20.9%-15.3%
NYJNYJ1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4010.0%30.9%-20.9%-15.3%
NYJNYJ1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4015.0%31.6%-16.6%-16.2%
TENTEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS407.5%30.9%-23.4%-14.2%
MINMIN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER402.5%15.4%-12.9%-12.4%
MINMIN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4134.1%19.1%+15.0%+13.1%
ATLATL1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS414.9%18.3%-13.4%-12.6%
NYJNYJ1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4035.0%21.0%+14.0%+13.6%
PHIPHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4626.1%14.8%+11.3%+10.9%
ATLATL1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER417.3%21.0%-13.7%-12.8%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4637.0%19.1%+17.9%+12.6%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4630.4%18.3%+12.1%+11.6%
TENTEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4050.0%34.6%+15.4%+14.6%
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS446.8%18.3%-11.5%-11.1%
NONO1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4017.5%31.6%-14.1%-13.6%
TENTEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4017.5%31.6%-14.1%-13.3%
KCKC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4344.2%32.0%+12.2%+12.9%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4318.6%33.9%-15.3%-12.3%
KCKC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER439.3%21.0%-11.7%-11.0%
INDIND1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4126.8%16.1%+10.7%+9.9%
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4445.5%30.9%+14.6%+12.1%
INDIND1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4143.9%32.1%+11.8%+12.1%
ARIARI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4119.5%31.6%-12.1%-12.0%
TENTEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER405.0%14.8%-9.8%-9.0%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4327.9%18.3%+9.6%+9.6%
TENTEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4032.5%21.0%+11.5%+10.6%
BUFBUF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4515.6%33.9%-18.3%-10.5%
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4411.4%19.1%-7.7%-9.8%
CLECLE1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4146.3%34.6%+11.7%+12.0%
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4443.2%31.6%+11.6%+11.2%
GBGB1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4221.4%32.1%-10.7%-11.1%
GBGB1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4223.8%14.8%+9.0%+8.5%
CINCIN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4020.0%32.0%-12.0%-11.2%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4619.6%33.9%-14.3%-10.1%
CHICHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4339.5%30.9%+8.6%+10.4%
CARCAR1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4122.0%32.0%-10.1%-11.0%
CARCAR1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4141.5%31.6%+9.8%+10.7%
LACLAC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4242.9%33.9%+9.0%+10.6%
JAXJAX1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4124.4%34.6%-10.2%-11.0%
JAXJAX1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4141.5%31.6%+9.8%+10.6%
ATLATL1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS419.8%19.1%-9.3%-8.7%