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WNBA · Team Correlation Results · team outliers · Last 3 Seasons

WNBA Team Correlation Results

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How much do two WNBA team markets actually move together, priced off real odds rather than raw hit rates? Each leg is devigged from its own two-sided closing line; multiply the two and you get what the market implies if they were independent. Correlation is how far reality sits from that — i.e. how badly a naive multiply misprices the parlay. Flip either leg’s direction to negate it.

We compared every team against its own prices on 4,416 splits, and none of them stands out beyond what random chance produces at this many splits.

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top 500 of 4,416
TeamComboGamesTeam %League %Diffvs prices
MINNESOTA LYNXMINQ3 COVERS + Full Game COVERS12946.5%32.7%+13.8%+13.9%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS2nd Half TT UNDER + Full Game TT OVER5425.9%11.5%+14.4%+14.4%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ1 TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN7143.7%27.1%+16.5%+16.9%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ1 NO COVER + Full Game NO WIN12040.8%29.6%+11.2%+12.8%
DALLAS WINGSDALQ3 TOTAL OVER + Full Game NO COVER11438.6%25.5%+13.1%+13.0%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS1st Half WINS + Full Game COVERS9450.0%34.4%+15.6%+15.3%
ATLANTA DREAMATLQ2 NO COVER + Full Game COVERS12630.2%19.0%+11.1%+11.0%
NEW YORK LIBERTYNYQ1 TOTAL OVER + Full Game NO COVER13436.6%24.9%+11.7%+11.6%
PHOENIX MERCURYPHX1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER11126.1%15.5%+10.6%+10.7%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS1st Half COVERS + Full Game TOTAL UNDER9339.8%25.5%+14.2%+14.0%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS1st Half WINS + Full Game TOTAL UNDER9638.5%25.2%+13.3%+13.0%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS1st Half NO WIN + Full Game NO WIN9523.2%37.8%-14.6%-13.4%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS1st Half NO COVER + Full Game NO WIN9219.6%33.4%-13.8%-14.1%
ATLANTA DREAMATLQ2 TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS12536.8%25.3%+11.5%+11.5%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGSQ4 TOTAL UNDER + Full Game COVERS8338.6%24.7%+13.9%+13.8%
DALLAS WINGSDAL2nd Half TOTAL OVER + Full Game NO COVER11036.4%24.2%+12.1%+11.9%
MINNESOTA LYNXMIN1st Half NO COVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14136.2%25.5%+10.7%+10.7%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ1 NO COVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER12137.2%25.7%+11.5%+11.5%
ATLANTA DREAMATLQ2 NO WIN + Full Game COVERS11527.8%18.7%+9.1%+10.2%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS1st Half TOTAL UNDER + Full Game WINS9536.8%25.2%+11.6%+12.3%
DALLAS WINGSDALQ3 TOTAL OVER + Full Game NO WIN11443.0%25.7%+17.3%+12.1%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ1 NO WIN + Full Game NO WIN11542.6%33.2%+9.4%+11.4%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGSQ1 TOTAL UNDER + Full Game WINS8937.1%25.1%+12.0%+12.6%
DALLAS WINGSDAL1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER9930.3%18.9%+11.4%+11.2%
NEW YORK LIBERTYNY2nd Half TOTAL OVER + Full Game COVERS12513.6%24.2%-10.6%-10.8%
DALLAS WINGSDALQ1 COVERS + Full Game NO COVER11829.7%19.4%+10.3%+10.3%
MINNESOTA LYNXMINQ3 WINS + Full Game COVERS12348.0%32.3%+15.6%+12.0%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS1st Half WINS + Full Game WINS9550.5%37.8%+12.7%+12.7%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ1 NO WIN + Full Game TT UNDER11740.2%29.1%+11.0%+11.5%
DALLAS WINGSDALQ1 COVERS + Full Game NO WIN11735.9%20.4%+15.5%+10.8%
SEATTLE STORMSEA2nd Half NO COVER + Full Game COVERS1166.0%14.9%-8.9%-9.1%
DALLAS WINGSDALQ2 TOTAL OVER + Full Game NO COVER11436.0%24.7%+11.3%+11.1%
NEW YORK LIBERTYNYQ4 NO COVER + Full Game COVERS1279.4%19.0%-9.6%-9.5%
ATLANTA DREAMATL2nd Half TOTAL OVER + Full Game NO COVER12513.6%24.2%-10.6%-10.4%
DALLAS WINGSDALQ3 NO COVER + Full Game TT OVER11429.8%19.8%+10.1%+10.1%
MINNESOTA LYNXMINQ4 COVERS + Full Game NO WIN1324.5%19.1%-14.6%-7.4%
DALLAS WINGSDAL1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN9937.4%20.4%+17.0%+11.6%
MINNESOTA LYNXMIN1st Half COVERS + Full Game TOTAL UNDER14115.6%25.5%-9.9%-9.9%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ1 NO WIN + Full Game TOTAL UNDER11636.2%26.1%+10.1%+10.8%
NEW YORK LIBERTYNYQ4 NO WIN + Full Game COVERS1216.6%18.9%-12.3%-8.8%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ4 TOTAL UNDER + Full Game TT OVER1147.9%17.4%-9.5%-9.5%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ1 TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER7142.3%27.9%+14.3%+14.2%
PHOENIX MERCURYPHX1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TT OVER11122.5%14.0%+8.5%+8.7%
GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIESGS1st Half COVERS + Full Game COVERS9048.9%35.2%+13.7%+13.4%
CONNECTICUT SUNCONQ3 NO COVER + Full Game WINS1185.9%19.1%-13.2%-7.9%
ATLANTA DREAMATL2nd Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER5616.1%32.4%-16.3%-16.4%
NEW YORK LIBERTYNYQ1 TOTAL OVER + Full Game TT UNDER13727.0%18.4%+8.6%+8.6%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ2 WINS + Full Game NO COVER10729.9%18.7%+11.2%+10.0%
NEW YORK LIBERTYNYQ1 NO COVER + Full Game COVERS13410.4%19.4%-9.0%-8.9%
SEATTLE STORMSEAQ1 NO COVER + Full Game TT UNDER12240.2%29.4%+10.8%+10.7%